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BENGALURU: In his political resurgence, Donald Trump’s second term as President would prioritise a tighter grip on immigration policies marking his return to national politics. Industry observers suggest that a potential second Trump presidency would likely have contrasting immigration policies. While taking strict measures against unauthorised border crossings, he would implement robust controls on employment-based visas.
Indian IT firms are the largest users of H1-B visas and non-immigrant visas that allow US firms to temporarily employ foreign workers. But in recent times, Indian IT companies have hired more locals and reduced their visa dependency significantly.
Brokerage firm Nomura’s recent report said that India could be adversely affected by tighter immigration policies. Indians received the highest number of work visas (H-1B visas) from the US, accounting for over 72% of the visas issued in the 2023 financial year. “Consequently, Indian Americans are emerging as an important political bloc in the US. The Trump campaign prioritised action against illegal immigration, particularly across the land borders, but even the legal immigration regime for professional workers and students could be tightened. For example, recently the US sharply increased the registration and application fees related to the H-1B visa,” the report said.
Stephen Yale-Loehr, professor of immigration law practice at the Cornell Law School, said both legal and illegal immigrants will be hurt by a second Trump administration. “During his first term in office, Donald Trump hurt H-1B workers by restricting who could qualify, slowing down processing times, and issuing more denials. He is likely to do that again in his second administration, he said. Yale-Loehr also said a second Trump administration may try to make it harder for international students to work temporarily in the US after they graduate. “Moreover, because there are more conservative judges now than before, litigation to stop such efforts may be less likely to succeed.”
During the conclusion of his initial presidential term, Trump extended the ban on H-1B and L-1 work visas in a series of hardline immigration policies. Trump signed a proclamation suspending the issuance of certain categories of worker visas through Dec 31, 2021.
Cyrus D Mehta, managing partner of New York-based law firm Cyrus D Mehta & Partners, said he can see the Trump administration tightening the screws on legal immigration even though their focus so far has been on people coming through the border. “Indian IT firms will be impacted, and we already got a taste of that during the last Trump administration,” he said.
Mehta said the administration can issue regulations requiring higher wages for H-1B workers that may even be well above the market wages and can impose even greater filing fees. “The administration can also insist on specific contracts between the IT firm and the client when H-1B workers are placed at client sites, and if they approve the H-1B petition, can limit the validity period till the end date of the contract or work order with the third-party client.”
Vivek Wadhwa, the CEO of Vionix Biosciences, said there are competing forces within the Trump administration now. “On the one hand, you have the extreme anti-immigrant Steve Miller, and then you have the extremely pro-immigrant Elon Musk. Vivek Ramaswamy (American entrepreneur who founded Roivant Sciences) will also be very influential and will surely support skilled immigration. Overall, I think that a Republican administration will be much better for India and for Indian and American businesses, but we need to wait and see which side wins on immigration and what this new administration does,” he said.
Mehta believes that the new administration may most likely also abolish the existing policy of the USCIS that gives deference to prior H-1B and L-1 approvals filed by the same employer. “Although one would hope that technocrats like Elon Musk may be able to guide the Trump administration on good business immigration policies, they may be outvoted by ideologues like Stephen Miller who believe that all non-citizens, legal or not, are a threat to American workers and also wrongly perceive them to undermine America’s cultural identity and thus not consistent with Trump’s “Make America Great Again” philosophy,” he added.
IT industry body Nasscom said the tech sector is the key lynchpin of the US-India bilateral engagement. “The US is the largest market for India’s $254 billion tech sector, where its overall contribution is $80 billion to US GDP. Importantly, the industry plays a key role in supporting US companies in strengthening the US economy. As the tech industry association in India representing Indian and US tech companies, Nasscom looks forward to working closely with the new US administration to strengthen the dynamic tech partnership between our two nations.”
