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What once appeared to be former President Donald Trump‘s race to lose has transformed into a closely contested battle as Vice President Kamala Harris gains traction, buoyed by a surge in polling and the addition of Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her running mate.
Since President Joe Biden’s surprising decision to end his reelection bid and endorse Harris late last month, the Vice President has seen her support swell, narrowing the gap with Trump.
According to the latest national polling average tracked by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Trump holds a razor-thin lead with 47.1% support to Harris’s 47%. This represents a significant tightening from the more than 6-point advantage Trump held when Harris first announced her candidacy.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ model isn’t alone in showing a shift. Nate Silver’s electoral forecast now places Harris ahead of Trump for the first time. This reversal comes after Trump consistently led against Biden and initially Harris, with Silver now labeling the race a “toss-up.”
Shifting dynamics in key battlegrounds
Democrats have found renewed hope in several battleground states. Decision Desk HQ reports that nine out of ten key states have shown a trend favoring Harris. North Carolina, a state where Democrats have not won since Barack Obama’s narrow 2008 victory, has seen Trump’s lead diminish from 10 points to just 3. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D) expressed confidence on Sunday that Harris could finally turn the state blue.
Other battlegrounds are also in play. Nevada polls, though few, show Trump’s lead shrinking from 9 to 3 points since Biden’s exit. In Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan, Harris has closed the gap, gaining 2, 4, and 3 points respectively.
National and demographic trends
Harris’s national standing has also improved. A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday shows her with a 1-point lead over Trump and tied at 50% in critical battleground states. The poll reflects increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with 85% planning to vote this fall, up from 81% last month.
In a Morning Consult poll released Monday, Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump, the largest margin for any Democratic candidate in nearly a year. Her appeal extends to independents, where she leads Trump by 5 points, and among younger voters aged 18 to 35, where she has a 9-point advantage—a demographic where Biden struggled.
Impact of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Polling also suggests Harris is better positioned than Biden in a three-way race that includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While Trump had a slight edge over Biden in such matchups, Harris holds a narrow 1.5-point lead according to the averages from DDHQ and The Hill, with FiveThirtyEight showing similar results.
Despite the favorable shift for Harris, the race remains tight, indicating that both candidates will need to energize their bases as the general election approaches. Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio previously suggested that Harris might enjoy a temporary boost in the wake of her announcement. Whether this so-called honeymoon period will last remains an open question, as both candidates gear up for a fiercely contested fall campaign.
Since President Joe Biden’s surprising decision to end his reelection bid and endorse Harris late last month, the Vice President has seen her support swell, narrowing the gap with Trump.
According to the latest national polling average tracked by The Hill/Decision Desk HQ, Trump holds a razor-thin lead with 47.1% support to Harris’s 47%. This represents a significant tightening from the more than 6-point advantage Trump held when Harris first announced her candidacy.
The Hill/Decision Desk HQ model isn’t alone in showing a shift. Nate Silver’s electoral forecast now places Harris ahead of Trump for the first time. This reversal comes after Trump consistently led against Biden and initially Harris, with Silver now labeling the race a “toss-up.”
Shifting dynamics in key battlegrounds
Democrats have found renewed hope in several battleground states. Decision Desk HQ reports that nine out of ten key states have shown a trend favoring Harris. North Carolina, a state where Democrats have not won since Barack Obama’s narrow 2008 victory, has seen Trump’s lead diminish from 10 points to just 3. North Carolina Governor Roy Cooper (D) expressed confidence on Sunday that Harris could finally turn the state blue.
Other battlegrounds are also in play. Nevada polls, though few, show Trump’s lead shrinking from 9 to 3 points since Biden’s exit. In Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Michigan, Harris has closed the gap, gaining 2, 4, and 3 points respectively.
National and demographic trends
Harris’s national standing has also improved. A CBS News/YouGov poll released Sunday shows her with a 1-point lead over Trump and tied at 50% in critical battleground states. The poll reflects increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with 85% planning to vote this fall, up from 81% last month.
In a Morning Consult poll released Monday, Harris holds a 4-point lead over Trump, the largest margin for any Democratic candidate in nearly a year. Her appeal extends to independents, where she leads Trump by 5 points, and among younger voters aged 18 to 35, where she has a 9-point advantage—a demographic where Biden struggled.
Impact of independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Polling also suggests Harris is better positioned than Biden in a three-way race that includes independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. While Trump had a slight edge over Biden in such matchups, Harris holds a narrow 1.5-point lead according to the averages from DDHQ and The Hill, with FiveThirtyEight showing similar results.
Despite the favorable shift for Harris, the race remains tight, indicating that both candidates will need to energize their bases as the general election approaches. Trump pollster Tony Fabrizio previously suggested that Harris might enjoy a temporary boost in the wake of her announcement. Whether this so-called honeymoon period will last remains an open question, as both candidates gear up for a fiercely contested fall campaign.
