Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau‘s minority government faces its first major test after Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre introduced a motion of no confidence in parliament on Tuesday. The vote, set for Wednesday following a heated debate, could threaten Trudeau’s leadership, although the motion is unlikely to pass.
Poilievre, far ahead in public opinion polls, has been pushing for a snap election since the New Democratic Party (NDP) ended its coalition agreement with the Liberals earlier this month.The collapse of the deal has left the Trudeau administration vulnerable, with the Conservatives seeing an opportunity to seize power.
During the debate, a fiery Poilievre criticized Trudeau for failing to address key issues facing Canadians, including soaring living costs, a housing crisis, and rising crime rates, while pointing to the doubling of the national debt. “After nine years of Liberal government, the promise of Canada is broken,” he declared.
If elected prime minister, Poilievre promised to implement “a common sense plan to axe the tax (on carbon emissions), build the homes, fix the budget and stop the crime.”
Meanwhile, Trudeau acknowledged the challenges Canadians are facing during a Monday night appearance on The Late Show with Stephen Colbert. “People are hurting,” he said. “People are having trouble paying for groceries, paying for rent, filling up the tank,” adding that Canadians are “looking at change.” Despite this, he vowed to “keep fighting.”
Liberals likely to hold on
Although the no-confidence motion represents a significant challenge, it is not expected to succeed. Two smaller political factions have already indicated they will support the government in the vote.
Poilievre, however, has vowed to continue pushing for an election, with another opportunity to bring down the government expected in early October.
Trudeau first came to power in 2015 and has since managed to fend off two of Poilievre’s predecessors in elections in 2019 and 2021. A coalition deal with the NDP was intended to keep the Liberals in office until late 2025, but the NDP pulled out earlier than expected, citing concerns over its own popularity.
A recent Angus Reid poll shows the Conservatives leading the Liberals with 43% of voting intentions compared to 21% for the ruling party. The NDP currently stands at 19%.
Despite Poilievre’s efforts, political analysts suggest that an election is unlikely until spring 2025.